A positive index can describe a losing week for most of its constituents. During 5–11 October 2026, UTC, our fixed-weight basket of 166 published tokens gained 4.45%. Yet 116 declined, and the typical token in the sample lost 3.92%.
NEAR supplied the crucial difference. A 28.23% starting weight and a 19.70% weekly return contributed 5.56 percentage points, more than the basket's entire gain. The other 165 assets contributed −1.12 points together. Removing NEAR and rescaling their weights produced a return of −1.55%.
One constituent contributed more than the index gained
This result does not require a news narrative to explain its arithmetic. We turn each asset's starting capitalization into a weight, hold those weights fixed and add the resulting return contributions. NEAR supplied +5.56 points, while the rest supplied a negative total. A headline gain of 4.45% therefore says nothing about whether most constituents rose.
All three bars show contributions to the full index in percentage points. The separate ex-NEAR calculation below rescales the remaining weights.
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Weighted Return | +4.45% |
| Median Return | −3.92% |
| Breadth | 50 of 166 30.12% |
| Top-1 Weight | NEAR 28.23% |
| Top-1 Contribution | +5.56 pp |
| Ex-Top1 Return | −1.55% |
A green headline and a declining majority
Only 50 tokens rose. None finished with an unchanged price between the two weekly boundaries. Positive breadth was 30.12%, and the negative median confirms that weakness was not confined to a few tiny outliers. Both measures examine participation without giving larger assets more votes.
Token counts across weekly-return intervals. Every constituent appears once, irrespective of capitalization.
The larger assets also split direction. TAO lost 3.21%, VVV lost 17.81%, and FET lost 5.58%. ICP gained 3.00% and RENDER 0.82%. The largest starting allocation happened to belong to a rising token. That did not make the other large constituents a uniformly advancing group.
Removing NEAR changes the sign, not just the magnitude
The rest-of-basket contribution of −1.12 points differs from the standalone ex-NEAR return of −1.55%. The first uses the full basket's weights, of which only 71.77% remain after removing NEAR. The second divides by the remaining starting capitalization so that the other 165 weights add up to 100% again.
The full and ex-NEAR baskets use fixed starting weights. The median describes the typical token, not a portfolio return.
This is neither a forecast of what would happen if NEAR fell nor evidence that other tokens depended on its price. Removing the leader is an arithmetic test of a completed week. It reveals how much the positive aggregate depended on membership and weighting.
Outperforming Bitcoin does not remove concentration
BTC price fell 3.56% between the exact UTC-week boundary snapshots. The full basket beat that benchmark by approximately 8.01 percentage points. The ex-NEAR basket beat it by 2.01 points while still losing value in absolute terms. Relative strength and a positive return are different statements.
The separate sector-capitalization aggregate rose 4.71%, while total crypto market capitalization fell 3.60%. Neither figure replaces this basket's 4.45% price return. Capitalization changes also reflect token supply, whereas the basket holds its starting weights fixed.
Starting weights and every constituent's contribution
Membership was frozen when the pack was generated at 09:05 UTC on 12 October. The table contains all 166 constituents with tickers and permanent CMC IDs. Displayed figures are rounded. The downloadable CSV retains prices, capitalizations, actual anchor dates and per-record sources.
Show all 166 constituents and starting weights
| Asset / CMC ID | Start market cap, $ | Weight, % | Return, % | Contribution, pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEAR / 6535 | 6,415,428,904.00 | 28.23 | +19.70 | +5.5623 |
| TAO / 22974 | 3,527,033,755.00 | 15.52 | -3.21 | -0.4981 |
| ICP / 8916 | 1,875,424,722.00 | 8.25 | +3.00 | +0.2478 |
| VVV / 35509 | 1,461,997,309.00 | 6.43 | -17.81 | -1.1457 |
| RENDER / 5690 | 1,025,042,782.00 | 4.51 | +0.82 | +0.0372 |
| FIL / 2280 | 881,712,741.60 | 3.88 | +15.63 | +0.6065 |
| INJ / 7226 | 763,503,833.20 | 3.36 | +1.51 | +0.0507 |
| FET / 3773 | 591,761,378.30 | 2.60 | -5.58 | -0.1453 |
| VIRTUAL / 29420 | 555,444,146.60 | 2.44 | -11.65 | -0.2848 |
| UB / 38339 | 342,326,181.80 | 1.51 | +4.75 | +0.0716 |
| GRT / 6719 | 323,908,196.50 | 1.43 | -5.16 | -0.0736 |
| AKT / 7431 | 233,098,635.10 | 1.03 | -2.19 | -0.0225 |
| THETA / 2416 | 232,628,382.90 | 1.02 | -2.63 | -0.0269 |
| TRAC / 2467 | 230,079,143.00 | 1.01 | -9.57 | -0.0969 |
| GRASS / 32956 | 169,545,025.50 | 0.75 | +19.03 | +0.1420 |
| SENT / 38868 | 168,423,943.50 | 0.74 | -6.28 | -0.0465 |
| ATH / 30083 | 156,458,122.00 | 0.69 | -13.52 | -0.0931 |
| AIOZ / 9104 | 143,826,923.00 | 0.63 | +5.27 | +0.0333 |
| GLM / 1455 | 129,516,691.10 | 0.57 | +4.26 | +0.0243 |
| SN51 / 36902 | 109,230,123.00 | 0.48 | +8.56 | +0.0411 |
| SOSO / 35818 | 103,528,142.50 | 0.46 | +7.25 | +0.0330 |
| AGIX / 2424 | 100,536,235.10 | 0.44 | +4.73 | +0.0209 |
| Q / 38236 | 100,323,700.20 | 0.44 | +41.44 | +0.1829 |
| OCEAN / 3911 | 98,045,070.50 | 0.43 | -6.85 | -0.0296 |
| CHIP / 39870 | 97,768,218.24 | 0.43 | +39.51 | +0.1700 |
| QUBIC / 29169 | 89,973,295.09 | 0.40 | -0.54 | -0.0021 |
| NMR / 1732 | 89,643,157.93 | 0.39 | +15.29 | +0.0603 |
| TAG / 34958 | 87,619,146.54 | 0.39 | -23.22 | -0.0895 |
| LPT / 3640 | 85,569,122.33 | 0.38 | +4.72 | +0.0178 |
| KAITO / 35763 | 83,662,798.52 | 0.37 | -7.08 | -0.0261 |
| DATA / 35626 | 76,349,151.70 | 0.34 | -6.39 | -0.0215 |
| AGT / 36195 | 75,247,898.58 | 0.33 | -23.26 | -0.0770 |
| ARC / 34926 | 72,725,075.72 | 0.32 | -13.39 | -0.0428 |
| IO / 29835 | 71,174,672.56 | 0.31 | +4.41 | +0.0138 |
| UAI / 38841 | 70,877,110.27 | 0.31 | +11.95 | +0.0373 |
| ROSE / 7653 | 67,766,938.06 | 0.30 | +8.20 | +0.0244 |
| PHA / 6841 | 64,776,960.41 | 0.29 | -20.32 | -0.0579 |
| COAI / 38489 | 63,329,076.33 | 0.28 | -11.19 | -0.0312 |
| NOS / 16612 | 54,380,534.48 | 0.24 | -18.45 | -0.0441 |
| ACU / 36492 | 54,287,778.68 | 0.24 | -25.36 | -0.0606 |
| ALLO / 38908 | 53,539,246.45 | 0.24 | -8.48 | -0.0200 |
| HOLO / 38309 | 52,538,362.32 | 0.23 | -5.56 | -0.0129 |
| C / 37340 | 45,218,077.45 | 0.20 | -0.77 | -0.0015 |
| NIL / 35702 | 44,996,839.20 | 0.20 | +5.13 | +0.0101 |
| NES / 30140 | 43,802,854.02 | 0.19 | -5.97 | -0.0115 |
| BNKR / 37545 | 42,461,287.51 | 0.19 | -20.83 | -0.0389 |
| OPEN / 37456 | 39,234,724.20 | 0.17 | -7.42 | -0.0128 |
| SAHARA / 36671 | 39,211,837.02 | 0.17 | -2.69 | -0.0046 |
| SENTIS / 38838 | 36,736,702.29 | 0.16 | -38.14 | -0.0617 |
| SKYAI / 36300 | 36,579,556.10 | 0.16 | -6.50 | -0.0105 |
| KGEN / 38554 | 35,498,713.75 | 0.16 | -11.48 | -0.0179 |
| ABT / 2545 | 33,965,870.13 | 0.15 | -1.69 | -0.0025 |
| SQD / 12894 | 33,813,951.51 | 0.15 | -10.69 | -0.0159 |
| VANA / 34619 | 33,157,599.82 | 0.15 | +1.51 | +0.0022 |
| VELVET / 37298 | 32,767,083.65 | 0.14 | -2.69 | -0.0039 |
| FLUX / 3029 | 32,492,401.06 | 0.14 | +17.58 | +0.0251 |
| ZEREBRO / 34083 | 31,793,918.25 | 0.14 | -9.42 | -0.0132 |
| AT / 38757 | 31,729,122.52 | 0.14 | +6.88 | +0.0096 |
| RLC / 1637 | 31,611,291.07 | 0.14 | +186.72 | +0.2597 |
| FLOCK / 34987 | 31,237,365.28 | 0.14 | -13.97 | -0.0192 |
| OPG / 39800 | 31,164,601.45 | 0.14 | +7.01 | +0.0096 |
| AIOT / 36319 | 31,097,801.99 | 0.14 | -4.58 | -0.0063 |
| US / 38869 | 30,430,456.16 | 0.13 | -11.04 | -0.0148 |
| ARKM / 27565 | 29,747,381.68 | 0.13 | +6.33 | +0.0083 |
| TRUTH / 38178 | 29,520,031.15 | 0.13 | +0.41 | +0.0005 |
| AI / 39883 | 27,342,651.60 | 0.12 | -2.13 | -0.0026 |
| AGRS / 1037 | 26,699,058.86 | 0.12 | -33.90 | -0.0398 |
| IQ / 2930 | 25,419,779.11 | 0.11 | -5.34 | -0.0060 |
| VR / 14822 | 24,981,433.48 | 0.11 | -0.18 | -0.0002 |
| XNY / 36933 | 24,851,596.86 | 0.11 | -15.31 | -0.0167 |
| CHR / 3978 | 23,049,816.37 | 0.10 | -0.26 | -0.0003 |
| CGPT / 23756 | 21,798,543.60 | 0.10 | +0.33 | +0.0003 |
| MAGIC / 14783 | 20,730,709.92 | 0.09 | +124.80 | +0.1138 |
| FAI / 34330 | 19,854,538.56 | 0.09 | -1.94 | -0.0017 |
| GNUS / 30101 | 19,666,386.71 | 0.09 | -1.66 | -0.0014 |
| TA / 37430 | 19,448,119.97 | 0.09 | +2.70 | +0.0023 |
| ROBO / 39595 | 19,132,661.19 | 0.08 | -2.77 | -0.0023 |
| SAPIEN / 38117 | 18,857,346.17 | 0.08 | -6.14 | -0.0051 |
| MIRA / 38495 | 18,624,821.63 | 0.08 | -2.94 | -0.0024 |
| AIN / 36770 | 18,199,766.12 | 0.08 | -19.16 | -0.0153 |
| SERV / 33964 | 17,962,912.21 | 0.08 | -9.36 | -0.0074 |
| NEWT / 36861 | 17,703,503.57 | 0.08 | -4.75 | -0.0037 |
| SIREN / 35766 | 17,417,286.06 | 0.08 | +40.25 | +0.0308 |
| GRIFFAIN / 34792 | 17,384,941.72 | 0.08 | -3.80 | -0.0029 |
| AGI / 24007 | 16,326,589.77 | 0.07 | -10.57 | -0.0076 |
| POND / 7497 | 14,396,521.31 | 0.06 | -6.13 | -0.0039 |
| CLANKER / 34285 | 14,100,345.30 | 0.06 | -8.11 | -0.0050 |
| SN62 / 36903 | 13,886,748.69 | 0.06 | -12.87 | -0.0079 |
| OLAS / 28458 | 13,376,246.74 | 0.06 | +12.56 | +0.0074 |
| RECALL / 38669 | 13,037,893.46 | 0.06 | -9.22 | -0.0053 |
| IN / 37609 | 12,836,268.10 | 0.06 | -11.36 | -0.0064 |
| NEURAL / 30528 | 12,829,781.90 | 0.06 | +0.23 | +0.0001 |
| AI / 28846 | 12,434,517.92 | 0.05 | +4.79 | +0.0026 |
| ALI / 16876 | 12,358,084.42 | 0.05 | -5.12 | -0.0028 |
| PAAL / 27178 | 12,197,626.57 | 0.05 | -21.30 | -0.0114 |
| FHE / 36153 | 12,103,545.22 | 0.05 | -8.86 | -0.0047 |
| DSYNC / 29884 | 10,645,067.48 | 0.05 | -19.04 | -0.0089 |
| SHELL / 35710 | 10,569,840.17 | 0.05 | -1.80 | -0.0008 |
| PROMPT / 36223 | 10,516,995.31 | 0.05 | -6.20 | -0.0029 |
| COOKIE / 31838 | 10,475,151.42 | 0.05 | -6.36 | -0.0029 |
| FORT / 20622 | 10,441,819.05 | 0.05 | +12.01 | +0.0055 |
| BLUAI / 38717 | 10,335,113.70 | 0.05 | -4.65 | -0.0021 |
| NATIX / 31342 | 10,309,084.51 | 0.05 | +0.59 | +0.0003 |
| DEOD / 23780 | 10,247,421.96 | 0.05 | -4.57 | -0.0021 |
| HERA / 19225 | 10,090,264.46 | 0.04 | +3.50 | +0.0016 |
| AIO / 37562 | 10,006,271.73 | 0.04 | -3.87 | -0.0017 |
| ADX / 1768 | 9,760,329.53 | 0.04 | +8.34 | +0.0036 |
| ASM / 6069 | 9,166,185.08 | 0.04 | +3.62 | +0.0015 |
| TOKEN / 28299 | 9,124,495.71 | 0.04 | -7.45 | -0.0030 |
| PRIME / 23711 | 8,529,495.30 | 0.04 | -2.95 | -0.0011 |
| SPECTRE / 28446 | 8,482,322.23 | 0.04 | -12.46 | -0.0047 |
| SWARMS / 34993 | 8,422,791.69 | 0.04 | -4.58 | -0.0017 |
| LYN / 38561 | 7,851,134.32 | 0.03 | -44.35 | -0.0153 |
| ORAI / 7533 | 7,510,574.56 | 0.03 | +16.01 | +0.0053 |
| LNQ / 30177 | 7,346,082.82 | 0.03 | -18.73 | -0.0061 |
| ACN / 19055 | 7,195,460.03 | 0.03 | +4.82 | +0.0015 |
| PIN / 34017 | 6,805,767.02 | 0.03 | +1.29 | +0.0004 |
| DMTR / 12041 | 6,795,457.45 | 0.03 | -2.90 | -0.0009 |
| LMWR / 24476 | 5,668,532.91 | 0.02 | -3.94 | -0.0010 |
| ALU / 9637 | 5,258,372.92 | 0.02 | -15.98 | -0.0037 |
| PALM / 28567 | 5,155,593.55 | 0.02 | -3.67 | -0.0008 |
| ANON / 35092 | 5,152,284.19 | 0.02 | +5.62 | +0.0013 |
| MDT / 2348 | 5,047,014.50 | 0.02 | -3.99 | -0.0009 |
| OCTA / 24261 | 4,594,374.98 | 0.02 | -12.48 | -0.0025 |
| LAT / 9720 | 4,559,297.81 | 0.02 | -12.01 | -0.0024 |
| GALEON / 18662 | 4,558,632.77 | 0.02 | -8.55 | -0.0017 |
| ALEPH / 5821 | 4,363,139.58 | 0.02 | -3.57 | -0.0007 |
| ASTRA / 29593 | 3,992,492.64 | 0.02 | +42.57 | +0.0075 |
| TAI / 20605 | 3,811,470.11 | 0.02 | -3.91 | -0.0007 |
| PIB / 3768 | 3,546,956.81 | 0.02 | -6.40 | -0.0010 |
| HEART / 15584 | 3,233,012.82 | 0.01 | -16.96 | -0.0024 |
| AIN / 8230 | 3,195,219.95 | 0.01 | -0.18 | 0.0000 |
| RSS3 / 17917 | 3,126,429.24 | 0.01 | -18.33 | -0.0025 |
| VAI / 8479 | 3,083,263.89 | 0.01 | -61.36 | -0.0083 |
| EDGE / 2535 | 3,002,959.19 | 0.01 | -6.39 | -0.0008 |
| BID / 35430 | 2,374,039.33 | 0.01 | -3.69 | -0.0004 |
| NUM / 13521 | 2,283,509.79 | 0.01 | +28.65 | +0.0029 |
| CLORE / 26497 | 2,240,573.61 | 0.01 | -20.62 | -0.0020 |
| OORT / 29331 | 2,153,377.26 | 0.01 | -0.99 | -0.0001 |
| VERTAI / 34158 | 2,102,393.69 | 0.01 | -39.71 | -0.0037 |
| HGPT / 25419 | 2,002,301.69 | 0.01 | -13.83 | -0.0012 |
| ARC / 13051 | 1,984,849.46 | 0.01 | -18.90 | -0.0017 |
| BOTTO / 14345 | 1,905,585.41 | 0.01 | -10.30 | -0.0009 |
| HOLD / 28510 | 1,591,774.79 | 0.01 | -4.26 | -0.0003 |
| NMT / 29447 | 1,564,477.13 | 0.01 | -1.86 | -0.0001 |
| MOEW / 31493 | 1,510,735.37 | 0.01 | -8.25 | -0.0005 |
| VRA / 3816 | 1,502,872.52 | 0.01 | -30.58 | -0.0020 |
| VADER / 34648 | 1,397,871.73 | 0.01 | -18.67 | -0.0011 |
| LIME / 10469 | 1,343,725.18 | 0.01 | +5.58 | +0.0003 |
| CERE / 4710 | 1,315,657.81 | 0.01 | +0.01 | +0.0000 |
| HASHAI / 30369 | 1,301,511.72 | 0.01 | -3.88 | -0.0002 |
| HOOK / 22764 | 1,270,662.93 | 0.01 | -2.46 | -0.0001 |
| ASTO / 19164 | 1,249,456.08 | 0.01 | -0.57 | 0.0000 |
| ZKML / 29445 | 914,757.67 | 0.00 | -10.43 | -0.0004 |
| EMP / 25446 | 843,552.29 | 0.00 | -21.86 | -0.0008 |
| DTEC / 29456 | 774,562.89 | 0.00 | -8.83 | -0.0003 |
| GPU / 29513 | 713,277.18 | 0.00 | -13.83 | -0.0004 |
| GTAI / 16711 | 357,184.22 | 0.00 | -0.88 | 0.0000 |
| SNSY / 30156 | 356,041.37 | 0.00 | -12.79 | -0.0002 |
| NTX / 13198 | 279,656.44 | 0.00 | +68.88 | +0.0008 |
| DBC / 2316 | 263,258.29 | 0.00 | +90.21 | +0.0010 |
| GLQ / 9029 | 230,255.66 | 0.00 | +14.50 | +0.0001 |
| NFP / 28778 | 167,534.96 | 0.00 | -8.36 | -0.0001 |
| SPEC / 32925 | 111,644.92 | 0.00 | -11.10 | -0.0001 |
| NRN / 32516 | 48,881.66 | 0.00 | -2.31 | 0.0000 |
| SQT / 10562 | 23,242.43 | 0.00 | -1.18 | 0.0000 |
Scope and limits
The study covers 5–11 October 2026, UTC. Token returns use 4 and 11 October daily closes as observations at the week's boundaries. All 166 assets have exact anchors, zero date offsets and 100% weekly coverage. BTC price and market aggregates use exact snapshots at 00:00 UTC on 5 and 12 October.
Daily prices and capitalizations come from the site's existing history, with original providers identified on each CSV record. Return = 100 × (end price / start price − 1). Weight = starting capitalization / total starting capitalization. Contribution = weight × return. Breadth counts positive returns, median describes the typical sample outcome, and Ex-Top1 applies the same weighted calculation after removing the largest starting constituent.
Membership reflects the published database at extraction rather than a reconstructed historical universe. Returns exclude fees and do not establish that these allocations could have been executed. Some smaller constituents are illiquid: complete history does not guarantee execution quality. This study does not establish why NEAR rose. The pack supports the contribution and participation analysis, not attribution to a particular announcement.
Source rows and calculations, CSV · Data sources. Pack version: c8064bb5b882554f.