Market digest – Last 365 days

24H 7D 30D 1Y

Executive summary

Mixed Mixed consolidation Market-wide Last 365 days Updated: 01:22 UTC · 01.10.2026
Over the past 365 days the market moved from a cycle peak into a deep correction: BTC -29.4% to 83,691, ETH -38.1%, total market cap -29.4%, AI sector -32.3%, with annual volatility near 114%. The main source of pressure was geopolitics–US strikes on Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and oil spikes–while Trump’s Iran deal and the White House bitcoin reserve announcement provided only selective support. Despite the drawdown, BTC remains about 26% above its 200-week average, a healthy long-term zone rather than a global bear market. Tactically, the technical backdrop is neutral: after a 6% monthly rebound the market is pulling back, and October seasonality is historically favorable but needs confirmation from momentum and volume.
BTC, global market-cap and AI sector performance cover the full annual period. The event archive starts on 2025-12-02, so the event count and list cover the available part of the year.
Regime Mixed consolidation
Period 01.10.2025 04:00 UTC → 01.10.2026 04:00 UTC
Archived events 17405 / 6699 market-moving
Confidence 74.00

What to do now

Action Watch and wait for confirmation
Risk High
Average confidence 30.35
Maximum confidence 94
Long: 68 Short: 149 Watch: 4449
Signals are mixed or still need confirmation. The system remains in watch mode to avoid trading noise.
Strategically, the yearly backdrop is constructive rather than bearish: BTC remains in a healthy zone above its 200-week average, so strong positive news can support the broader cycle. Tactically, the signal is neutral: the market is in a short-term pullback, and fresh entries need confirmation from momentum, volume and key-level holds. The near-term calendar is busy–ISM Manufacturing, Fed speakers, BTC options expiry and the US employment report: hotter data would pressure risk assets, while softer data would support risk appetite.

Why the system thinks this

Key drivers

US-Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz closure and oil spikes were the main shock of the year
Deep correction after the cycle peak: BTC -29.4%, ETH -38.1%, AI sector -32.3%
BTC holds about 26% above its 200-week average, a healthy long-term zone
White House bitcoin reserve announcement and institutional adoption as sources of support
Mixed macro backdrop: oil-driven inflation versus Fed easing expectations

Risk factors

Renewed Middle East conflict and another oil price spike
Hot inflation or strong labor-market data could reinforce expectations of tighter Fed policy
Annual volatility near 114% increases the risk of sharp liquidations
Weakness in ETH and the AI sector worsens the broader market structure
Event archive does not cover the full year: data starts in December 2025

Top signals

only the strongest for the period
02:38 UTC · 30.07.2026 U.S. launches fresh airstrikes in Iran - Axios
Short Bearish Confidence 94.00
00:33 UTC · 28.06.2026 Iran war news: US military says it struck multiple targets in Iran as ceasefire is strained by 2nd day of attacks - ABC7 Bay Area
Short Bearish Confidence 94.00
19:34 UTC · 01.09.2026 Bitcoin drops below $77K as US-Iran tensions pu... - Pluang
Short Bearish Confidence 88.00

BTC context

Neutral Bullish structure, short-term pullback Seasonality: Bullish
BTC $83.691
24H / 7D 0.48% / -0.10%
SMA 200W $66.172
Distance 26.48%
1H: 0.19%
30D: 6.31%
YTD: -4.37%
Month: 0.26%
Monthly average: 19.91%
Profitable months: 76.92%
Seasonality conflict: No
BTC is in a neutral tactical regime. New signals are better interpreted through momentum confirmation. BTC is above the 200W SMA: the long-term structure is healthy, with no strong overheating signal from this metric.
Updated: 03:00 UTC · 01.10.2026 · Source: Internal market data

Top events for the period

17:22 UTC · 31.08.2026 War on Iran: US bombs Iran
Bearish Geopolitics Market-wide Score 99 Impact 10/10
02:01 UTC · 11.06.2026 Oil Prices Spike as Iran Declares Strait of Hormuz Closed
Bearish Geopolitics Market-wide Score 99 Impact 10/10
01:18 UTC · 11.06.2026 Iran announces closure of Strait of Hormuz following US strikes
Bearish Geopolitics Market-wide Score 99 Impact 10/10
02:03 UTC · 22.06.2026 Shipping stalls in Strait of Hormuz after Iran declares key waterway shut
Bearish Geopolitics Market-wide Score 98 Impact 10/10
22:00 UTC · 15.06.2026 How Trump’s Iran Deal Breaks Sharply From Obama’s 2015 JCPOA
Bullish Geopolitics Market-wide Score 98 Impact 10/10

Additional data

BTC relationship to the regime

BTC remains the main filter for the market regime. At about 83.7K and roughly 26% above its 200-week average, it sits in a healthy long-term zone, but the technical signal is neutral and the market is in a short-term pullback. New signals should therefore be judged by BTC price action, volume and its ability to hold key levels.

Key tags

geopolitics macro regulation oil risk-off inflation ai bitcoin trump iran
BTC: $118.626 → $83.691 (-29.45%)
BTC low / high: $58.315 / $124.725
BTC volatility: 113.88%
Market cap: $4.05T → $2.86T (-29.40%)
Market cap min / max: $2.03T / $4.28T
AI market cap: $33.84B → $22.92B (-32.29%)
AI market cap min / max: $10.77B / $35.29B