Executive summary
Over the past 365 days, the market passed the peak of the four-year cycle (BTC near $126k in October 2025) and entered a prolonged correction. The dominant factor of the period was geopolitical escalation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: oil spikes, US strikes and a global risk-off impulse set the bearish tone. By August 13, 2026, BTC trades near $63.3k, about 1% below the 200-week average, testing this zone from below. Structural support from the US bitcoin reserve, regulatory clarity and institutional participation remains, so the yearly backdrop is still constructive, but tactically confirmation of a return above ~$64k is needed.
Regime
Neutral range under bearish pressure
Period
13.08.2025 19:00 UTC → 13.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Events
6150
/
2355
market-moving
Confidence
70.00
What to do now
Action
Watch and wait for confirmation
Risk
High
Average confidence
30.26
Maximum confidence
94
Signals are mixed or still need confirmation. The system remains in watch mode to avoid trading noise.
The structural yearly backdrop remains constructive thanks to the US bitcoin reserve, regulatory clarity and institutional participation, but tactically BTC sits near the critical 200-week average with a neutral technical signal and bearish pressure. New bullish signals need confirmation: a sustained return above ~$64k and a close on higher timeframes. Upcoming Core PCE, NFP and PPI create a crossroads: hotter data would increase pressure on risk assets, softer data would support recovery; given the recent uninformative macro reactions, focus on sustained moves after publication rather than the first minutes.
Why the system thinks this
Key drivers
Risk factors
Top signals
only the strongest for the period
02:38 UTC · 30.07.2026
U.S. launches fresh airstrikes in Iran - Axios
Short
Bearish
Confidence 94.00
00:33 UTC · 28.06.2026
Iran war news: US military says it struck multiple targets in Iran as ceasefire is strained by 2nd day of attacks - ABC7 Bay Area
Short
Bearish
Confidence 94.00
15:56 UTC · 31.07.2026
Costs to Hedge Against a Deeper Selloff in US Bonds Are Soaring
Short
Bearish
Confidence 88.00
BTC context
BTC
$63.339
24H / 7D
0.09% / -1.67%
SMA 200W
$64.002
Distance
-1.04%
1H: 0.10%
30D: 1.97%
YTD: -15.51%
Month: 0.70%
Monthly average: 1.06%
Profitable months: 30.77%
Seasonality conflict: No
BTC is in a neutral tactical regime. New signals are better interpreted through momentum confirmation. BTC is below the 200W SMA: the long-term cycle is under pressure and defensive scenarios carry more weight.
Updated: 18:00 UTC · 13.08.2026 ·
Source: Internal market data
Top events for the period
01:18 UTC · 11.06.2026
Iran announces closure of Strait of Hormuz following US strikes
Bearish
Geopolitics
Market-wide
Score 99
Impact 10/10
02:01 UTC · 11.06.2026
Oil Prices Spike as Iran Declares Strait of Hormuz Closed
Bearish
Geopolitics
Market-wide
Score 99
Impact 10/10
22:00 UTC · 15.06.2026
How Trump’s Iran Deal Breaks Sharply From Obama’s 2015 JCPOA
Bullish
Geopolitics
Market-wide
Score 98
Impact 10/10
02:03 UTC · 22.06.2026
Shipping stalls in Strait of Hormuz after Iran declares key waterway shut
Bearish
Geopolitics
Market-wide
Score 98
Impact 10/10
22:43 UTC · 06.05.2026
White House Says Bitcoin Reserve Announcement Coming in Weeks
Bullish
Macro
BTC
Score 98
Impact 10/10
Additional data
BTC relationship to the regime
BTC remains the main regime filter: the price near $63.3k is about 1% below the 200-week average (~$64k) and is testing this critical zone from below. The technical picture is neutral, with the structure showing a short-term pullback within a bullish framework. A sustained return above ~$64k would confirm strength; a close below would raise the risk of further correction.
Key tags
BTC: — → $63.507 (—)
BTC low / high: — / —
BTC volatility: —
Market cap: — → $2.18T (—)
Market cap min / max: — / —
AI market cap: — → $11.29B (—)
AI market cap min / max: — / —