AI Coin Sample Gained 22.9%; Excluding NEAR and AGIX, It Still Rose 15.9%

For 21–27 September 2026, the 166 published AI-coin sample gained 22.93% on a starting-market-cap-weighted basis. The typical coin did less: the median was 11.32%, and 128 of 166 assets (77.1%) finished higher.

NEAR Protocol had a Top-1 Weight of 27.67% and Top-1 Contribution of 8.26 pp; Ex-Top1 Return was 20.28%. Excluding AGIX’s recorded +688.14% move as well leaves a 15.94% return.

Three measures, three different answers

Weighted return tracks the basket using market-cap weights, the median is the midpoint of individual returns, and breadth counts how many coins advanced. The gap between +22.93% and the +11.32% median signals an uneven move, but the result did not depend on NEAR alone.

Testing the largest weight and the sharpest move

NEAR added +8.26 pp to the full result, yet the other 165 assets returned +20.28% after their weights were recalculated. Concentration in the largest constituent does not explain the entire gain.

AGIX creates a separate sensitivity. At a 0.47% starting weight, its +688.14% return contributed about 3.21 pp. The source market view records zero weekly AGIX volume intensity. That warrants a caveat, not a claim that the quote is wrong. Ex-AGIX return was +19.81%; ex-NEAR and AGIX it was +15.94%. For context, see the AI infrastructure segment.

Market context does not establish a cause

AI-sector capitalization rose 20.26%, BTC price gained 3.55%, and total crypto capitalization rose 3.46%. These are different series: the coin sample's daily-close return is not the same as sector market-cap change from hourly snapshots. The comparison shows relative performance, not why prices rose.

Period and method

The source rows are `coin_daily`; market benchmarks use `market_snapshot` snapshots and `internal_rollup`. Calendar period: 21–27 September 2026, UTC. Coin returns compare daily closes on 20 and 27 September. Market snapshots are from 00:00 UTC on 21 September and 23:00 UTC on 27 September, the last hourly observation before the week ended. The pack was generated on 30 September at 12:20 UTC for 166 published projects with valid CMC IDs and 100% price-data coverage. Membership is frozen at snapshot time, not historically reconstructed taxonomy.

Return = 100 × (ending close / starting close − 1); weight = starting market cap / total starting market cap; contribution = weight × return. Ex-Top1 removes the largest asset by starting market cap and recalculates weights. Median and breadth use all sample assets. Pack coin histories combine Binance Spot, BingX Spot, Bitget Spot, Coinbase Spot, Gate Spot, KuCoin Spot, MEXC, and CMC; market context uses internal_rollup. The data catalog describes the series. Table values are rounded. Pack: 9308f110568eccb3.